Montana ascends to No. 1

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The move was only one spot, but it was a big one for the University of Montana football team as the Grizzlies advanced to No. 1 in The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25 on Monday.

Montana was selected second in the preseason poll, but moved to No. 1 following its 73-2, season-opening rout of Western State and preseason No. 1 Villanova's 31-24 loss to FBS opponent Temple.

Villanova, the defending FCS national champion, didn't fall far as it was voted second in this week's poll by a panel of sports information and media relations directors, broadcasters, writers and other dignitaries. Montana had 57 of the 126 first-place votes and 3,052 points, while Villanova collected 46 first-place votes and 2,886 points.

Montana opened its season by tying an NCAA record with four interception returns for touchdowns against Western State. The Big Sky Conference power has finished as the national runner-up in each of the past two seasons, including a 23-21 loss to Villanova last December, and has a new head coach in Robin Pflugrad.

Appalachian State remained at No. 3, and Southern Illinois moved up one spot to No. 4. The biggest mover in the Top 25 was Jacksonville State, which rose 12 spots to No. 5 following its 49-48, double-overtime win at Ole Miss. Coach Jack Crowe's Gamecocks received nine first-place votes for their victory over an FBS program.

The rest of the Top 10 was New Hampshire at No. 6, followed by Richmond, Elon, South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin.

In an opening week in which many FCS programs took on FBS programs, William & Mary was the only team in the Preseason Top 25 to fall to a fellow FCS program, a 27-23 loss to CAA Football rival Massachusetts. William & Mary, a national semifinalist last year, fell seven spots to No. 11. Massachusetts broke into the poll at No. 18.

James Madison was No. 12, followed by McNeese State, Northern Iowa, South Carolina State, Delaware, Eastern Washington, Massachusetts, Liberty and Weber State.

North Dakota State joined UMass as the other new entry into the Top 25, grabbing No. 21 after its 6-3 win at University of Kansas. The Bison were followed in the Top 25 by Prairie View A&M at No. 22, then Eastern Illinois, Montana State and Colgate.

The two teams that fell out of the Top 25 received the next-highest vote totals - Holy Cross, which won its opener, and Penn, which was idle.

The Top 25 will be released every Monday afternoon during the regular season, apart from the final weekend when it will be released on Sunday, Nov. 21, due to its use as an official tool by the NCAA Division I Football Committee in selecting the 20-team playoff field.

The Sportsbook Betting Lines and Fathead.com will release a final Top 25 following the FCS championship game, which will be held Jan. 7 at Pizza Hut Park in Frisco, Texas.

The night before the FCS championship game, The Sportsbook Betting Lines will present the Walter Payton (outstanding FCS player) Buck Buchanan (outstanding FCS defensive player) and Eddie Robinson (outstanding FCS coach) awards, which are sponsored by Fathead.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.